As we wrap up Holy Week, all eyes are on Warner Bros’ big gamble, Sinners, which has a hefty budget of over $90 million. The buzz suggests it could rake in over $40 million during its opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada. But will it really deliver?
To put things into perspective, let’s look at past performances. Remember Jordan Peele’s Nope? It kicked off with a $44.3 million debut and ultimately grossed $123.2 million domestically. However, Sinners has a star power advantage, featuring the talented Michael B. Jordan, who reunites with director Ryan Coogler for the fifth time. Plus, with a budget that’s about 32% higher than Nope, expectations are riding high. Filming took place in New Orleans, benefitting from local film tax credits, and Domain Capital Group helped fund about 10% of the budget through a deal with Warner Bros. Both films are R-rated, but Sinners runs a bit longer at 2 hours and 17 minutes.
So, what’s the story behind Sinners? Set in 1932, it follows twin brothers Smoke and Stack, played by Jordan himself, who are former soldiers turned bootleggers. They return to their Mississippi hometown with dreams of opening a juke joint. Spoiler alert: things don’t go as planned, and chaos ensues by the end of the first night!
The previews kick off at 3 p.m. this Thursday, and the film will be shown in various formats like IMAX 70MM, Dolby, and more. Early indicators show strong interest from younger audiences, especially guys under 25, which is promising. These numbers are surpassing Nope and are inching closer to Us, another hit from Peele.
But what about the global scene? It’s a bit murky for Sinners, with a projected worldwide total of around $60 million. It will be screened on 16,600 screens across 71 territories, including major markets like France, Germany, and the UK.
Critics are loving it too! With a stunning 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, the film has drawn attention beyond its primary audience—there’s curiosity from fans of directors like Nolan and Scorsese, along with the upscale metro crowd. While tracking numbers have dipped slightly to $35 million, a last-minute marketing push might give it a boost, with presales reportedly exceeding those of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. However, it remains to be seen if Sinners can match that film’s $56.5 million opening.
One significant advantage for Sinners is Good Friday, a popular moviegoing day when most schools are out, making it an ideal time for families and friends to hit the theaters. This could lead to a stronger turnout than usual.
Warner Bros is looking to dominate the weekend, with two potential heavy-hitters that could both top $40 million. Alongside Sinners, they have the animated A Minecraft Movie, which is on track to take in around $47 million during its third weekend. The film is just $16.2 million shy of hitting the $300 million mark!
Historically, Warner Bros has had a strong presence during the Easter holiday, with notable releases like Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice—which still holds the record for the biggest Easter opening at $166 million. Last year, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire drew in $80 million over the holiday. The last time they had two films leading the pack was in 2019, thanks to The Curse of La Llorona and Shazam!
In short, while Sinners has its challenges ahead, there’s a chance it could rise to the occasion and make a significant impact at the box office. Let’s grab our popcorn and see how it all unfolds!
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